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Confidence and certainty in medical diagnoses within acute healthcare: a scoping review

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Objective

Overconfidence is an important source of medical error. This review analyses experimental studies of confidence in medical diagnosis to identify factors affecting clinicians’ confidence in their diagnoses and how confidence impacts patient care.

Method

A scoping review of medical and psychological literature was conducted. Articles were categorised according to methodology and clinical specialty. Findings were analysed thematically. Our review methodology adheres to the JBI’s Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist.

Data sources

We searched SCOPUS, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Global Health. We then performed citation tracking within these papers’ references to identify additional articles.

Eligibility criteria

Papers were included if they reported quantitative results from an empirical study in which participants reported their confidence or certainty during a diagnostic decision. Studies comprised several medical subdisciplines.

Results

77 articles met the inclusion criteria. Across these articles, confidence was not found to be well-calibrated to true diagnostic accuracy regardless of clinician experience. We organised articles under two main themes: the determinants of confidence and the uses of confidence during the patient’s care pathway. Confidence is found to be affected by several factors, including case complexity, early diagnostic differentials and the healthcare environment. Factors that affect confidence, but not accuracy, demonstrate how the two can become decoupled, resulting in overconfidence/underconfidence. Confidence is found to affect patient testing, medication administration and referral rates, among other clinical actions.

Conclusions

Improving the calibration of confidence should be a priority for medical education and clinical practice (eg, via decision aids). We propose a theoretical model of factors that affect diagnostic confidence/certainty. Such a model can inform future work on how appropriate diagnostic confidence can be prompted and communicated among clinicians.

Re-establishing control limits in statistical process control analyses: the stable shift algorithm

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Statistical process control (SPC) charts provide a natural approach to analysing time series data for healthcare quality improvement (QI) initiatives. A problem arising in practice is that having established baseline control limits, there is no accepted objective and transparent approach to deciding when to establish new control limits for a given chart. We present the Stable Shift Algorithm, a new algorithm to aid analysts by identifying when control limits should be re-established, partitioning a control chart of time series data into distinct time periods. The algorithm aims to achieve this while (1) using only the theory of SPC, familiar to many QI practitioners, (2) avoiding re-establishing limits prematurely and (3) remaining flexible to choice of basic parameters of typical control chart use in QI. This is achieved through the commonly used shift rule of control charts, applied to establish whether shifts warrant new control limits or not. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the effectiveness of the algorithm in achieving its aims, and a case study demonstrating application of the algorithm to 557 time series of accident and emergency care measures for providers in England and Scotland. Simulation results show that the algorithm avoids premature re-establishment of limits more often than simply re-establishing at every shift rule break. Application of the algorithm to the accident and emergency measures demonstrates this is not achieved at the cost of excessive additional rule breaks that might indicate control limits do not represent the underlying process. The Stable Shift Algorithm offers a potentially highly valuable tool for QI practitioners and researchers undertaking SPC analyses, providing an automated, consistent and rigorous approach facilitating large-scale analyses.

Advancing AI in healthcare: three strategic roles for quality and safety leaders

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Introduction

The role of quality and safety professionals and leaders in realising the potential and managing the risks of artificial intelligence (AI) tools has not been well defined. We suggest these leaders focus on three areas: using quality, safety and implementation sciences to increase the likelihood of beneficial AI adoption; using AI to enhance and support the methods of quality and safety management; and serving as experts and champions for AI tool use that promotes health and equity (figure 1).

Background and approach

We used 90-day research and development cycles1 to examine AI topics and the role of quality and safety leaders with respect to AI integration, including applying AI tools for quality improvement (QI) use cases,2 the broad application of AI in quality management systems, the implications of AI for patient safety3 and the use of AI...

From parallel tracks to integrated practice: advancing the integration of quality improvement and implementation science

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Despite decades of progress in global child health, neonatal mortality remains high, accounting for nearly half of all under-five deaths worldwide.1 Most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries and are preventable with timely, high-quality care for small and sick newborns.2 The WHO has called for every newborn to receive essential, high-impact interventions,3 yet the challenge lies not only in knowing what works, but in implementing those interventions at scale, with quality, and within real-world health systems. Quality improvement (QI) and implementation science (IS) offer complementary strategies to address this challenge. QI focuses on local, iterative problem solving to adapt and improve evidence-based or locally generated care processes,4 5 while IS provides structured, theory-driven methods to promote their uptake and sustainability.6 7 Yet too often, these fields operate independently rather than in a...

Learning from healthcare complaints: challenges and opportunities

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

The number of complaints received by healthcare organisations from patients and families is on an upward trajectory.1 For example, in 2023–2024, the NHS in England received 241 922 complaints,2 an increase of 5% on the previous year and 37% since 2013–2014. Moreover, while relatively few NHS patient encounters result in a formal complaint (approximately 0.4%), just 9% of patients who report poor healthcare experiences actually submit one.3

Although the motivation for complainants can vary—for instance, some patients seek redress, and others want resolution of ongoing problems—they nearly always request organisational learning.4 Furthermore, while complaints can be incorrect or ill-intentioned, leading to concerns about their validity,5 the collective scale of the information they provide is hard to dismiss. They are, in effect, a massive rolling compendium of ethnographies from patients and families at the sharp end of treatment delivery, revealing perceived...

Using implementation science to define the model and outcomes for improving quality in NEST360, a multicountry alliance for reducing newborn mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Background

Improving small and sick newborn care (SSNC) is crucial in resource-limited settings. Newborn Essential Solutions and Technologies (NEST360), a multicountry alliance, aims to reduce newborn mortality through evidence-based interventions. NEST360 developed a multipronged approach to improving quality. We use implementation research (IR) to describe this approach and report emerging implementation outcomes.

Methods

The implementation research logic model (IRLM) was applied to link contextual factors, implementation strategies, mechanisms and implementation outcomes, capturing successes and challenges of the improving quality approach. Data sources included programme data, peer-reviewed publications and team input. Contextual factors were organised by the NEST360-UNICEF SSNC implementation toolkit. Strategies were grouped by the Expert Recommendations for Implementation Change list, and implementation outcomes were measured using Proctor’s implementation outcomes.

Results

We developed an IRLM to describe the implementation of NEST360’s improving quality model. This IRLM included 33 contextual factors; 42% were barriers, 42% were facilitators, and 15% were both a barrier and facilitator. Additionally, we identified 10 implementation strategies that NEST360 used. The logic model also describes the connections between the contextual factors, the strategies that address them, and the preliminary implementation outcomes. Examples of the outcomes measured include Reach with 100% of units logging into the NEST360-Implementation Tracker (NEST-IT) at least once (October 2023 to March 2024), Adoption with 100% of units conducting a quality improvement (QI) project (April 2024 to June 2024), and Feasibility with 93% of units reporting NEST-IT data in their QI project documentation (April 2024 to June 2024). Finally, this study identified sustainability strategies as a critical need.

Conclusions

Integrating IR and QI enhances SSNC in resource-limited settings. Addressing barriers, leveraging facilitators and using structured IR frameworks advanced QI efforts, thereby improving intervention reach, adoption and feasibility while building scalable systems for high-quality healthcare.

Implementation of national guidelines on antenatal magnesium sulfate for neonatal neuroprotection: extended evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the National PReCePT Programme in England

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Background

Since 2015, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines have recommended antenatal magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) for mothers in preterm labour (<30 weeks’ gestation) to reduce the risk of cerebral palsy (CP) in the preterm baby. However, the implementation of this guideline in clinical practice was slow, and MgSO4 use varied between maternity units. In 2018, the PRrevention of Cerebral palsy in PreTerm labour (PReCePT) programme, an evidence-based quality improvement (QI) intervention to improve use of MgSO4, was rolled out across England. Earlier evaluation found this programme to be effective and cost-effective over the first 12 months. We extended the original evaluation to determine the programme’s longer-term impact over 4 years, its impact in later preterm births, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to compare MgSO4 use in England (where PReCePT was implemented) to Scotland and Wales (where it was not).

Methods

Quasi-experimental longitudinal study using data from the National Neonatal Research Database on babies born <30 weeks’ gestation and admitted to a National Health Service neonatal unit. Primary outcome was the percentage of eligible mothers receiving MgSO4, aggregated to the national level. Impact of PReCePT on MgSO4 use was estimated using multivariable linear regression. The net monetary benefit (NMB) of the programme was estimated.

Results

MgSO4 administration rose from 65.8% in 2017 to 85.5% in 2022 in England. PReCePT was associated with a 5.8 percentage points improvement in uptake (95% CI 2.69 to 8.86, p<0.001). Improvement was greater when including older preterm births (<34 weeks’ gestation, 8.67 percentage points, 95% CI 6.38 to 10.96, p<0.001). Most gains occurred in the first 2 years following implementation. PReCePT had a NMB of £597 000 with 89% probability of being cost-effective. Following implementation, English uptake appeared to accelerate compared with Scotland and Wales. There was some decline in use coinciding with the onset of the pandemic.

Conclusions

The PReCePT QI programme cost-effectively improved use of antenatal MgSO4, with anticipated benefits to the babies who have been protected from CP.

Association between Child Opportunity Index and paediatric sepsis recognition and treatment in a large quality improvement collaborative: a retrospective cohort study

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Background

The Child Opportunity Index (COI) is a multidimensional measure of US neighbourhood-level conditions needed for healthy development. COI is associated with healthcare delivery and outcomes. Formal quality improvement (QI) may influence the relationship between COI, quality of care and outcomes in children.

Objective

To assess the association between COI and paediatric sepsis care delivery and outcomes and determine if baseline disparities in care change over time among hospitals in the Improving Pediatric Sepsis Outcomes (IPSO) collaborative.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of IPSO patients probabilistically linked to the Pediatric Health Information System database from 2017 to 2021. Primary exposure was COI. We estimated differences in the proportions of patients in each COI quintile identified via standardised sepsis recognition protocols (screening tool, huddle documentation and/or order set use) and who received a bundle of recommended care (standardised sepsis recognition, plus bolus <1 hour and antibiotic <3 hours). We further assessed the timeliness of each bundle component and mortality. We evaluated changes in standardised sepsis recognition over time using generalised linear models.

Results

31 260 sepsis cases from 24 hospitals were included. Cross-sectional analysis over the entire study period found patients in the Very High COI quintile were most likely to be identified via standardised recognition protocols and receive IPSO’s recommended care bundle (67.7% and 46%, respectively). Over time, standardised sepsis recognition improved for all; the greatest improvements were among inpatients in the Very Low COI quintile.

Conclusion

Disparities exist in paediatric sepsis care delivery by COI. Over the course of the IPSO collaborative, care improved most for children in the lowest COI quintile. QI collaboratives focused on standardisation and shared learning may reduce disparities.

Implementing quality and safety regulations in residential disability services: a qualitative interview study

Quality and Safety in Health Care Journal -

Background

Regulation plays a central role in health and social care systems, particularly in ensuring quality, safety and accountability. However, there is limited understanding of how organisations effectively implement and adhere to these regulatory requirements. In particular, little is known about how providers of residential care facilities for people with disabilities (RCF-D) navigate and apply statutory care regulations.

Methods

We conducted semistructured interviews with managers of RCF-D. Participant recruitment followed a purposive maximum variation sampling approach. 19 participants were interviewed, representing 22 RCF-D and 16 provider organisations. Interview data were analysed using a mixed deductive–inductive approach.

Results

Most managers were supportive of regulatory goals, creating a more favourable environment for successful implementation. By making sense of regulatory requirements and sharing insights across their organisations, managers facilitated smoother implementation. Crucially, building strong internal and external networks played a pivotal role in driving success. Collaborative relationships with inspectors, centred on a shared commitment to improving residents’ lives, further strengthened the implementation process.

Conclusion

Managers of RCF-D devised a range of strategies to manage compliance, balancing regulatory demands with problem-solving and relationship-building. These efforts were supported by a collaborative approach to working with inspectors, which fostered a shared commitment to improving residents’ lives. Our findings offer practical guidance for organisations seeking to improve regulatory compliance through effective relationship management and resource alignment. Future research could investigate how framing regulation as an adaptive intervention could further enhance implementation and sustain compliance.

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